Nigeria’s aviation sector is bracing for fresh turbulence as the price of aviation fuel, Jet A-1, has surged by over 144 per cent to more than N2,200 per litre, raising fears of imminent increases in airfares.
Findings show that the product now sells between N2,103 and N2,203 per litre across major airports, with Lagos averaging N2,103, Abuja and Port Harcourt around N2,143, and Kano recording the highest price at N2,203 per litre.
The sharp spike, largely driven by rising global oil prices and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, has intensified cost pressures on airlines already grappling with high operating expenses.
Industry analysts warn that the development could force airlines to adjust ticket pricing upward, noting that aviation fuel accounts for about 35 per cent of global airline operating costs.
“This kind of increase leaves airlines with very limited options. The most immediate response will be fare adjustments and possible introduction of fuel surcharges,” an aviation analyst said.
Data indicates that jet fuel prices have also risen by about 18.05 per cent in recent weeks, further compounding the financial burden on operators.
According to the latest Jet Fuel Price Monitor by the International Air Transport Association (IATA), global jet fuel prices have jumped by nearly 83 per cent in the past month, with average prices hovering around $175 per barrel.
“The spike has significantly squeezed airline margins globally, forcing carriers to reassess pricing strategies and route deployment,” the report noted.
Experts say domestic carriers in Nigeria may increase ticket prices by between 30 and 70 per cent in response to the surge.
Popular routes such as Lagos–Abuja are expected to witness sharper fare hikes, while last-minute bookings could become significantly more expensive.
Operators may also cut flight frequencies or suspend less profitable routes to stay afloat, a move that could reduce connectivity to smaller destinations.
“Airlines may be compelled to rationalise routes and reduce frequencies as part of cost-control measures,” another industry expert explained.
The ripple effects are also expected to hit cargo operations, with higher air freight costs likely to drive up prices of goods, especially time-sensitive shipments.
Projections suggest that if the trend persists, domestic airfares could rise to between N150,000 and N350,000 on major routes. Already, checks on booking platforms show one-way tickets ranging from N92,000 to N289,000.
Passengers, many of whom are still recovering from high travel costs recorded during the last festive season, have expressed concern over the likelihood of further increases.
Analysts, however, say improving local refining capacity could offer long-term relief, though Nigeria remains vulnerable to global crude oil price fluctuations.
“Even with local refining efforts, global oil market dynamics will continue to influence jet fuel pricing,” an industry stakeholder said.
Stakeholders warn that unless urgent stabilisation measures are introduced, rising aviation fuel costs could further strain the sector and push air travel beyond the reach of many Nigerians.
